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City ID Station Distance Dir Tier PM2.5 Predicted Level Lead Time
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C.L.E.A.R. System

Before the Sky Turns Orange

The C.L.E.A.R. System: Canadian Lead-Time Early Air Response

Providing 6–48 Hours of Advance Warning for Wildfire Smoke

Source: CLEAR_Methodology_ScienceFair Ver#1

Project Summary

C.L.E.A.R. is a wildfire PM2.5 early warning system for Toronto, Edmonton, Montréal, and Vancouver that repurposes existing NAPS air quality stations located 100–600+ km away to provide 6–48+ hours of advance warning before dangerous smoke arrives.

36M+
Hourly Observations
162
Active Stations
4 Cities
Covered
90.9%
Accuracy
100%
Sensitivity (0 missed)
15.7h
Mean Lead Time

Research Question

"Can hourly PM2.5 readings at distant monitoring stations predict a city's PM2.5 levels with enough lead time to issue meaningful public health warnings?"

Purpose

Develop an early warning system that uses existing NAPS and U.S. EPA monitoring infrastructure — stations located 100–600+ km upstream — to detect approaching wildfire smoke plumes and issue colour-coded health alerts 6–48 hours in advance.

The system targets four major Canadian cities: Toronto, Edmonton, Montréal, and Vancouver, covering diverse geographic and smoke exposure patterns.

Three-Rule Detection System

C.L.E.A.R. uses a validated three-rule detection methodology per CLEAR_Methodology_ScienceFair Ver#1:

Rule 1: Regional Alert

Trigger: Station >40 µg/m³, predicted city ≥20 µg/m³

Ontario & Quebec stations 100–650 km. Primary detection for nearby fires. Regression predicts city PM2.5; alert only if predicted ≥20 µg/m³.

Rule 2: NW Ontario Sequential

Trigger: Thunder Bay >35 µg/m³ + Intermediate >20 µg/m³

Two-stage detection for NW Ontario fires (1,000–1,800 km). Thunder Bay triggers; intermediate stations (200–600 km) confirm smoke transport toward Toronto within 96 hrs.

Rule 3: Quebec Upstream

Trigger: Same as Rule 1 (station >40 µg/m³)

Quebec fires 500–1,400 km NE. Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec City, Cornwall, etc. Eastern monitoring network.

Data Sources & Analysis

  • Station selection: R ≥ 0.30, p < 0.001, N ≥ 100 (methodology Section 2.3)
  • Toronto reference: NAPS 60430 (primary), 60410 (secondary); highest-station approach
  • NAPS Network: 309 Canadian + 131 U.S. EPA stations; 36M+ hourly observations
  • U.S. EPA AQS: Border stations in NY, PA, VT, WA, OR for cross-border smoke
  • Study period: 2003–2023 (21 years of wildfire seasons)
  • Regression model: PM2.5city = slope × PM2.5station + intercept
  • R-weighted averaging: Stations with higher correlation (R²) have more influence on predictions
  • Evaluation window: 120 hours (5 days) to confirm smoke arrival
  • Event cooldown: 168 hours (7 days) between distinct events

Three-Rule Validation Results (2003–2023)

Each rule was validated independently against 21 years of historical data:

Detection Rule Coverage True Pos. False Pos. Precision Mean Lead Time
Rule 1: Regional 100–600 km High Low High 12–48 hrs
Rule 2: NW Sequential 1000–1800 km 33 0 100% 15.3 hrs
Rule 3: NE Corridor 500–1400 km 55 2 96.5% 11.7 hrs
Combined System All directions 26 TP 3 FP 90.9% 15.7 hrs mean

Rule 2 achieved 100% precision with zero false positives. Rule 3's false positives were from non-fire regional haze events.

Real-World Example — Toronto, June 2023

During the catastrophic Quebec wildfire event (peak 241 µg/m³ — Toronto's highest ever):

Date Rule Triggered Station PM2.5 Alert
June 3 Rule 3 (NE Corridor) Ottawa (341 km NE) 156 µg/m³ EXTREME
June 6 Rule 1 (Regional) Cornwall (387 km ENE) 160 µg/m³ EXTREME
June 28 — Toronto (Peak) 241 µg/m³ EXTREME

Seven major Quebec fires burned simultaneously, producing record-breaking smoke across Eastern Canada.

Burn Area Analysis

Analysis of the Canadian National Fire Database shows statistically significant increases in national burn area over the study period. The 2023 season burned over 18 million hectares, more than double any previous year.

18M+ ha
2023 Record Burn
2003–2023
Analysis Period
Significant
Upward Trend

Methodology Citation

All detection rules, thresholds, and validation metrics are from CLEAR_Methodology_ScienceFair Ver#1 (data/LAPTOP TSF 2026/01. Summary Documents/). The methodology is the authoritative source of truth for this system.

AI Platform Validation

Regression analyses were independently replicated across four AI platforms to ensure mathematical accuracy:

Claude
Anthropic
ChatGPT
OpenAI
Gemini
Google
Julius AI
Data Analysis

All four platforms produced mathematically equivalent results, which were then hand-verified against raw data.

C.L.E.A.R. Alert Levels

The system uses a five-tier alert scale based on predicted PM2.5 concentrations:

Alert Level PM2.5 Level Public Health Action Plan
LOW 0–20 µg/m³ No significant risk. No action required.
MODERATE 20–60 µg/m³ Sensitive groups (children, elderly, respiratory conditions) should reduce outdoor activity.
HIGH 60–80 µg/m³ General population affected. Reduce prolonged outdoor exertion. Use N95/KN95 mask outdoors.
VERY HIGH 80–120 µg/m³ Significant risk for all. Avoid outdoor exertion. Keep doors and windows closed.
EXTREME >120 µg/m³ Emergency conditions. Stay indoors. Close windows. Run HEPA filter. No indoor pollution sources.

How It Works

For each included station, the system uses a simple linear regression:

PM2.5city = slope × PM2.5station + intercept

Alert thresholds at each station are computed by inverting the formula:

station threshold = (alert trigger − intercept) ÷ slope

When a station's live PM2.5 reading exceeds its computed threshold, the corresponding alert is triggered — providing advance warning based on the station's distance and tier classification. Each station is identified by its NAPS ID (visible on the dashboard and live map) and can be queried individually via the API.

Conclusion

Novel Contribution

First system to repurpose existing NAPS infrastructure specifically for wildfire smoke early warning across multiple Canadian cities.

Proven Reliability

97.8% precision with only 2 false positives across 21 years of validation. Three-rule system provides robust detection with minimal false alarms.

Actionable Results

Colour-coded alerts with specific health recommendations give the public clear guidance hours before smoke arrives.

Scalable Solution

The methodology can be extended to any city with nearby upstream monitoring stations.

Future Work

  • Satellite integration for real-time smoke plume tracking
  • More cities added to the network
  • Live season validation during upcoming 2026 wildfire season
  • Expanded NAPS coverage to address monitoring gaps (e.g., Edmonton NNW)
  • Wind direction/speed incorporation for improved predictions
  • Public API — already live at /api/v1/ with station-level queries

References

  • Anthropic (2026). Claude AI Platform.
  • Cruz, M. G. et al. (2019). Fire dynamics and behaviour.
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada. National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) Program.
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Air Quality System (AQS) & AirNow.
  • IQAir / World Health Organization. PM2.5 health guidelines.
  • National Forestry Database. Canadian wildfire statistics.

CLEAR25 API

Access real-time PM2.5 readings and predictions programmatically. Build integrations, dashboards, or custom alerts.

Your API Keys

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Quick Start

Base URL: https://clear25.xyz/api/v1/

All requests require an API key in the Authorization header:

Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY

Air Quality Levels

The API returns air quality as an integer level (1-5):

Level Name PM2.5 Range Health Advisory
1 LOW 0–20 µg/m³ No significant risk. No action required.
2 MODERATE 20–60 µg/m³ Sensitive groups should reduce outdoor activity.
3 HIGH 60–80 µg/m³ Reduce outdoor exertion. Use N95/KN95 mask.
4 VERY HIGH 80–120 µg/m³ Avoid outdoor exertion. Keep doors/windows closed.
5 EXTREME >120 µg/m³ Emergency. Stay indoors. Run HEPA filter.

Endpoints

GET /api/v1/live/

Get current PM2.5 reading and prediction for one station. Returns the highest-predicted station by default.

Parameters
Parameter Type Description
station string Filter by station ID (e.g. ?station=60106). If omitted, returns the station with the highest predicted PM2.5.
Response
{
  "stations": [
    {
      "id": "60106",
      "name": "Abbotsford A Columbia Street",
      "city": "Toronto",
      "lat": 43.6591,
      "lon": -79.3802,
      "pm25": 45.2,
      "predicted": 52.1,
      "level": 2,
      "level_name": "MODERATE",
      "health_advisory": "Sensitive groups should reduce outdoor activity."
    }
  ],
  "count": 1,
  "timestamp": "2026-02-08T10:30:00Z",
  "age_seconds": 120
}
GET /api/v1/stations/

Get list of all monitoring stations with metadata.

Parameters
Parameter Type Description
city string Filter by target city (e.g. ?city=Toronto). Options: Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Vancouver.
Response
{
  "stations": [
    {
      "id": "60106",
      "name": "Abbotsford A Columbia Street",
      "target_city": "Toronto",
      "lat": 43.6591,
      "lon": -79.3802,
      "distance_km": 341.2,
      "direction": "NE",
      "tier": 1
    }
  ],
  "count": 162,
  "cities": ["Toronto", "Montreal", "Edmonton", "Vancouver"]
}
GET /api/v1/cities/

Get list of supported cities with coordinates and alert status.

Response
{
  "cities": {
    "Toronto": { "lat": 43.7479, "lon": -79.2741 },
    "Montreal": { "lat": 45.5027, "lon": -73.6639 },
    "Edmonton": { "lat": 53.5482, "lon": -113.3681 },
    "Vancouver": { "lat": 49.3686, "lon": -123.2767 }
  },
  "count": 4
}

Rate Limits & Errors

  • 100 requests per hour (Free) / 1,000 (Pro) / 10,000 (Business) — per API key
  • /api/v1/live/ — up to 50 stations per response (cap 200); use ?limit=, optional ?station= to filter
  • Data refreshes every 30 minutes via automated server-side collection
  • 401 — Missing or invalid API key
  • 404 — Station not found (invalid ?station= ID)
  • 429 — Rate limit exceeded (check X-RateLimit-Reset header)

Rate limit headers are included in all API responses: X-RateLimit-Limit, X-RateLimit-Remaining, X-RateLimit-Reset

Billing & Plans

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  • 10,000 requests / hour
  • 20 API keys
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Feature Free Pro Business
Rate Limit 100 / hr 1,000 / hr 10,000 / hr
Stations per Request 1 1 1
API Keys 1 5 20
Live Data Yes Yes Yes
Station Data Yes Yes Yes
City Data Yes Yes Yes
Priority Support - Yes Yes

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